The cost of insuring CoreWeave debt against default for five years rose as much as 74.5 basis points to a record intraday 1194.5 basis points on 15 October, as its bonds declined amid plans to increase borrowing, Bloomberg reported.
Key points
- Five-year swaps priced a greater than 60% chance of default within five years.
- CoreWeave’s unsecured bonds due in 2032 traded below 80% of face value on 14 October, taking their yield above 15%.
- Reports gave different June figures for debt and debt plus lease obligations.
Five-year swaps reach 1194.5 basis points
The intraday reading came from ICE Data Services. At that level, the swaps priced a greater than 60% probability that CoreWeave would default within five years, Bloomberg reported. A credit default swap pays out if the debt it covers defaults, making its price a measure of what investors will pay to protect a credit position.
The rise followed an earlier increase in the cost of protection. CoreWeave’s five-year swap spread stood at 368 basis points on 6 October and had reached 643 basis points by 9 October, Startup Fortune reported. The 15 October intraday level was higher than both readings.
The swaps cover a five-year horizon, while the bonds under pressure mature in 2032. Both prices matter to a company that buys Nvidia GPUs and builds data centres with borrowed money, then leases computing capacity to hyperscalers and AI labs under multi-year contracts.
CoreWeave’s 2032 bonds fall below 80%
CoreWeave’s unsecured bonds due in 2032 fell below 80% of face value on 14 October, taking their yield above 15%, 36Kr reported, citing Trace prices. The company’s shares fell 15.5% that day. The bond price and yield move in opposite directions: buyers paying less for the same promised payments receive a higher yield.
The bond yield had risen by about 150 basis points over the preceding week, according to the 36Kr report. 36Kr reported a credit-market forecast putting CoreWeave’s five-year default probability as high as 63%. Bloomberg’s account put the probability priced by swaps at more than 60%. Both figures concern the same five-year period, rather than an imminent payment date.
DA Davidson analyst Gil Luria said CoreWeave’s borrowing cost was around 9%, against a return on investment of 1%, according to 36Kr’s account of his comments. Luria said that even the 4% to 5% target return he attributed to the company would fall short of that financing cost. Those were the analyst’s assessments, not reported results for the new borrowing CoreWeave plans.
Jordan Chalfin, an analyst at CreditSights, raised a separate concern about the duration of CoreWeave’s data centre leases relative to its customer contracts, 36Kr reported. He questioned whether customers would renew if computing capacity became excessive. Renewal matters to a business whose facilities require financing before the full stream of contract payments arrives.
June debt figures and customer contracts
36Kr put CoreWeave’s total consolidated debt and lease obligations at about $520 billion at the end of June. Startup Fortune reported roughly $35 billion in debt and $5.5 billion in cash as of 30 June, citing company disclosures. The two reports used different descriptions of the obligations they counted.
CoreWeave also undertook a $2 billion convertible note offering in September, Startup Fortune reported. A $2.6 billion loan earlier in 2026 drew orders exceeding the amount offered, although its pricing widened. The debt market’s willingness to provide that loan preceded the higher prices for default protection reported in October.
The company’s multi-year customer contracts are central to its ability to pay for GPUs and data centres. Microsoft accounted for roughly two-thirds of CoreWeave’s revenue, and contracts with OpenAI had been reported at up to $11.9 billion. Meta had committed $21 billion more.
