Gartner forecast a net gain of 1.7 million jobs worldwide from AI by 2030 at its IT Symposium/Xpo in Barcelona on 10 November, HCAMag reported. The outlook matters for workforce planning because Gartner also expects hundreds of millions of existing jobs to change and millions of people to encounter delayed hiring.
Key points
- Gartner projects 11 million jobs created and 8.9 million eliminated by AI worldwide by 2030.
- The public sector is the only one of Gartner’s three industry groups forecast to lose more jobs than it gains.
- Gartner expects 436 million employees to adapt to changes in their roles through 2030.
- Executives deferred the creation and hiring of 1.3 million positions in 2026, according to Gartner.
Gartner projects gains outside the public sector
Gartner expects AI to create 11 million jobs and eliminate 8.9 million by 2030. Those are global projections, and the balance differs across the three industry groups in its forecast.
For asset-intensive industries — businesses dealing in physical products or operating capital-intensive infrastructure — Gartner projects 6.4 million jobs created and 6 million eliminated. It expects AI-related losses to affect 0.4% of that workforce.
Technology has a wider exposure to AI: Gartner puts nearly 70% of its workers in highly exposed roles. Even there, the firm forecasts 1.9 million jobs created against 0.4 million eliminated by 2030. It projects direct AI-related losses equal to 1.8% of the global technology workforce over that period.
The public sector runs the other way. Gartner forecasts 0.9 million jobs eliminated and 0.4 million created by 2030, making it the only one of the three groups with a projected net loss. It also expects investment in public-sector AI to fall short of offsetting severe future skills shortages arising from other factors.
Gartner counts 1.3 million deferred positions in 2026
Hiring decisions form a separate part of Gartner’s forecast. The firm says executives deferred the creation and hiring of 1.3 million positions in 2026, alongside figures of 2.2 million jobs lost and 1.6 million gained that year.
Gartner expects delayed hiring to affect 5 million people by 2030 as business and IT executives postpone new positions. John Lovelock, Gartner’s Distinguished VP Analyst and Chief of Research, draws a distinction between those positions and jobs that existed before AI eliminated them: “Deferred jobs are not the same as lost jobs. They simply aren’t created.”
Gartner expects 436 million roles to change
Gartner estimates that by 2030, 436 million employees will have to adjust to altered duties — just over 20% of the world’s workforce, The National CIO Review reported. Gartner projects that direct AI-related job losses will affect between 0.4% and 1.8% of workers by then.
Helen Poitevin, a Distinguished VP Analyst at Gartner, said organisations furthest along in using AI are reconsidering their operations and the balance between staff and technology rather than simply replacing labour. That approach still leaves employers with decisions about which responsibilities change and where workers need different skills.
Poitevin warned against applying lessons from one role or industry to another. She said AI’s effects on jobs differ by geography, function and industry, and that executives need to account for each industry’s particular risks.
