Anthropic warned in its IPO prospectus that government attitudes could harm its commercial customer ties, although agency contracts provide less than 1% of annual revenue, Reuters reported on 2 October. The warning covers relationships beyond those with government buyers as the company prepares for a listing that could value it at $2 trillion.
Key points
- Government agency contracts account for less than 1% of Anthropic’s annual revenue, the company says.
- Export restrictions in June led Anthropic to disable Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all customers, according to its prospectus.
- Anthropic warns that government measures could cause revenue losses, disruption and damage to customer relationships.
Anthropic looks beyond its government revenue
Anthropic says in the prospectus that government views of the company and its technology could affect customers, partners and other commercial relationships. That places the potential consequences outside its direct public-sector business, which the company puts at less than 1% of annual revenue from agency contracts. The warning also encompasses how existing and prospective customers might perceive the company after a government action.
The prospectus identifies an instruction issued by the US president in February for federal agencies to stop using Anthropic’s models. Anthropic warns that government actions of the kind it describes may lead to material revenue losses or disrupt its business. The filing also says changes in a government’s view of Anthropic or its technology carry risks when the company sells to agencies.
SpaceX described a related customer risk in its IPO filing, according to Reuters. It said weaker relationships with US government agencies could materially damage its ability to retain business and win new work. Anthropic’s warning extends to commercial buyers and partners outside government procurement, even though government contracts make up a small portion of its reported revenue.
The Federal Trade Commission is conducting an industrywide investigation of AI companies that includes Anthropic, Reuters reported on 30 September. That inquiry is separate from the actions Anthropic identifies in its prospectus as examples of measures that could hurt its business.
Commerce restrictions reached Fable 5 and Mythos 5 customers
The prospectus says the US Department of Commerce imposed worldwide export restrictions on Fable 5 and Mythos 5 in June. Anthropic says it responded by disabling both models for every customer to comply. The measure thus affected access across the customer base, rather than only sales to government agencies or customers in a particular export market.
The Commerce Department subsequently lifted the restrictions, and Anthropic restored the models. The company warns in its prospectus that comparable actions could happen again. It says such measures could bring “significant reputational harm”, including unfavourable perceptions among current and potential customers, partners, employees and investors, regardless of how the measures are ultimately resolved.
Anthropic also warns that the government actions it describes may cause material revenue losses or business disruption. Its account of the Commerce restrictions sets out one operational consequence: two models were unavailable to all customers until the restrictions were lifted. The company’s warning about future measures covers both that sort of interruption and the possible effect on relationships after access is restored.
Anthropic’s potential $2 trillion valuation
Investors could value Anthropic at more than $2 trillion in an IPO, compared with an estimated valuation of $965 billion in May, Impakter reported on 30 September. The prospective price accompanies rapid revenue growth and substantial costs: revenue rose 12-fold to nearly $4.6 billion in 2025, while the company reported a $42 billion net loss.
An earlier AI Affairs report on Anthropic’s prospectus covered the 2025 loss and revenue increase. Anthropic spent $7.33 billion on computing and infrastructure that year, three times its 2024 expenditure, and plans $518 billion in future cloud, computing and infrastructure commitments, Impakter reported.
The prospectus also warns that advanced AI could present “catastrophic or existential risks to humanity”. Alongside those technology risks, it describes government measures that could interrupt products and affect the commercial relationships on which Anthropic’s revenue depends. SpaceX’s recent listing valued that company at $1.77 trillion, according to Impakter.
