Toshiba plans to invest roughly JPY 60 billion (US$380 million) in the Philippines to double its production capacity for hard-disk drives used in AI data centres by fiscal 2027, TrendForce News reported on 2 October, citing Nikkei. Tom’s Hardware reported that the planned doubling is measured against fiscal 2025 capacity.
Key points
- Toshiba aims to double capacity for AI data-centre HDDs against fiscal 2025 levels.
- Its medium-term market-share target is 30%, up from just over 10% by storage capacity.
- Seagate Technology and Western Digital shares fell on 2 October, though analysts questioned how much extra supply Toshiba could deliver.
Philippine lines and Toshiba’s production target
The planned spending would expand Toshiba’s Philippine facilities and add lines for drives with as much as 40% more storage capacity per unit, according to the Nikkei account carried by TrendForce News. It would be Toshiba’s first major HDD investment in around five years. Higher-capacity drives are part of the production plan, alongside an increase in the number of drives the facilities can make.
Tom’s Hardware reported that additional lines had been installed at Toshiba’s Laguna Technopark facility and that the first drives from them had shipped. It said those shipments meant the lines had been qualified at least in part. The added lines build nearline hard drives and prepare the facility to manufacture next-generation models.
Toshiba also plans more automation in cleanroom work and drive inspection. The measures are expected to cut the additional workforce required for the expansion by about 40% and improve manufacturing yields. That staffing estimate concerns the extra workers needed for the planned increase in output, rather than the plant’s existing workforce.
Tom’s Hardware identified the next-generation drives as Toshiba’s M12 series, which uses microwave-assisted magnetic recording and up to 11 platters. It reported plans for 30TB-class drives in 2027. The publication also said Toshiba had sold all the drives it produced in recent quarters, while Seagate and Western Digital had seen strong AI-sector demand for their higher-capacity models.
Toshiba targets 30% of HDD capacity
Toshiba holds just over 10% of the HDD market measured by storage capacity and aims for 30% over the medium term, TrendForce News reported, citing Nikkei. The report identified Seagate Technology and Western Digital as the other two major HDD suppliers. Toshiba’s target is a share of storage capacity sold, rather than a share measured by the number of drives.
The investment is tied to demand for storage from AI data centres. TrendForce News reported that solid-state drives offer faster reading and writing than HDDs but cost around 20 times more, according to Nikkei. Nearline HDDs occupy a tier between faster online storage and slower offline storage. Their lower cost remains relevant to customers buying large amounts of capacity.
Toshiba intends to introduce 40TB-class drives with up to 12 disks in 2027, alongside its plans for 30TB-class models. Tom’s Hardware reported that the Philippine expansion would support production of the 40TB-class drives. Toshiba’s planned increase in factory capacity and its planned increase in capacity per drive are separate parts of the effort to raise storage output.
Seagate and Western Digital fall on 2 October
Seagate Technology shares fell 13% and Western Digital shares fell 12% on 2 October following news of Toshiba’s expansion, Investing.com reported. Both companies had recorded large gains earlier in the year, according to the publication. The declines came as analysts disputed whether Toshiba’s spending would substantially loosen HDD supply.
Citi analyst Asiya Merchant said Toshiba depends on outside suppliers for components including recording media and heads. Those suppliers would also need to expand capacity significantly for Toshiba to double its output, she said, potentially limiting how many additional drives reach customers. The investment in Toshiba’s assembly facilities therefore leaves component production as a constraint on the planned increase.
LYNX Equity Strategies argued that the spending was unlikely to make a meaningful dent in the global HDD shortage relative to demand, Investing.com reported. The firm said it believed Toshiba was more likely addressing a shortage in Japan than seeking to take global share aggressively from Seagate and Western Digital. That assessment differs from the 30% medium-term share ambition attributed to Toshiba in the Nikkei account.
Component makers are also investing. Nitto Denko plans to spend JPY 28 billion on CISFLEX components used in HDD magnetic-head suspensions. Nitto Denko is targeting a 40% increase in capacity by the end of fiscal 2028 against fiscal 2025, according to the report, which put its share of that component market at more than 90%.
Toshiba plans to work towards mass production of 65TB-class HDDs around 2030, followed eventually by 100TB-class models.
